Business cycle dating committee wiki

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The Committee wants to make sure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity (which is its sole objective) is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area.

Adopting a dating criterion that refers solely to aggregate Euro-area economic activity achieves this objective most transparently.

Does the Committee date recessions for individual countries in the euro area?

No, the sole objective of the Committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole.

Historically, the NBER's first announcement of a peak and on-set of a recession occurs only when the evidence about the actual behavior of the economy becomes available for a long enough period to resolve the ambiguities created by special events.

The Committee has scheduled another meeting for late October.

Recall that our definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in activity.” Isn’t a recession a period of diminished economic activity?

See The CEPR and NBER Approaches What data does the Committee use?Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.For more information, see the latest announcement from the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, dated 9/20/10.First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but use a range of indicators, notably employment.Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity.

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